January 11th Free Content

WagerBro's Write UP

Wake Forest @ Duke 8:00 PM EST

In Duke’s past 5 games, they were favored by double digits, and this matchup is no different with Wake Forest getting 19.5 points on the road. The Demon Deacons come off a 10 point loss to Florida State in which they did not cover. The Blue Devils are off an 11 point win over Georgia Tech, the missed covering by the hook.

Duke playing as a home favorite of 15 or more points is only 13-10 ATS, but 16-7 to the under, since 2018. In a similar situation, Wake Forest playing as an away dog of 10 or more points is 14-7 to the under, since 2015. From a conference perspective ACC matchups, with a home favorite of 15 or more points and a total above 145, are 20-10 to the under since 2012.

Now, since both of these teams rank in the top 100 in terms of pace of play, the under may be scary. However, when you consider that the average total in all three situations mentioned is above 148, the idea of taking the under in this game is much easier to swallow.

Because the line in this matchup is so large, and I foresee it playing out that way, taking the under on the total game does not frighten me. (no chance of BS free throws causing a bad beat)

Pick: u146

 

 

Florida @ Missouri 8:30 PM EST

Florida enters this game off back to back wins to start conference play. Missouri began their conference schedule with back to back losses including a loss as a home favorite to Tennessee in their last contest. Florida is a 2.5 point road favorite and the total currently sits at 129.

Florida is 13-6 ATS as a favorite since 2015, including 6 of their last 8. Missouri is 9-22 straight up when getting 6 or fewer points as a home dog. As a conference, SEC teams as away favorites win straight up 27-16 (62.8%), including 12 of their last 18. Lastly, in all conference play, away favorites of 3 or fewer points coming off back to back wins facing a team coming off a loss as a home favorite are 11-5 since 2018.

Florida is in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency this year while Missouri is outside the top 50 overall. Taking the small road favorite against a laboring team to start conference play is an easy pick for me.

Pick: Florida ML -135


SEC Conference System Plays If you're a true basketball bettor you've noticed SEC Away Dogs are hitting at a high clip; 14-4-1 ATS 77% this season. With five SEC away dogs active this afternoon, we must dig further...

S. Car / Tenn 12:00 
If you don't think this line is too high you haven't been paying attention to Tennessee performance.  Very sorry scoring performances vs Wisconsin and LSU, and squeaking away with a win it didn't look like they'll get vs a fairly week Missouri team. South Carolina also just got it handed to them by florida, but when it comes to playing tough completion, SC's Frank Martin is where I want my money. Just recently they won as 10 point road dogs at Virginia and 6 points dogs at Clemson. Considering that, Tennessee is 1-12 ATS when playing as a home favorite with a total of 132 or lower in the last 13 situations and only 37% ATS in database history under that situation.  Tenn is also just 5-16 23% ATS when playing as a home favorite with a line -7 or smaller, and the total is 135 or lower in database history. So Car is also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 Away games with a total of 135 or lower. You'll see a tight battle here at the end regardless of who wins.  Take the points

TAKE: South Carolina +7 -110

Texas AM / Vandy 2:30 CT
Going back into last season you'll remember TA&M is a great away dog cover team; as they're 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 away dogs games. But another situation I've paid attention too from a distance is that TA&M is 9-0-1 ATS when playing as a away dog bigger than 5 vs SEC opp in their last 10; while Vandy is a staggering 39% ATS when playing as home favorite of -5 or more vs conference play in database history.Not only that, Vandy is 2-11 ATS when coming off a game where they scored 77+points and lost in the last 13 situations. Though vandy will control the floor at home, this conference matchup will be decided within the last two minutes and for that reason I'll take the points.

TAKE: Texas A&M +5.5 -110


Pac 12 Conference System Plays One thing I love to fade is Pac 12 dogs, large dogs that is. The talent level is so much more clear cut in this conference and the records, stats, trends, situations, and history show. Large Away Dogs (+10 or larger) in the first month of conference play have lost 9 straight ATS and 36% ATS in the last three seasons.  Let's dive deeper as two are active

Washington / Stanford 5:00 CT
Stanford playing with a very nice line here, I really like them to win by double digits here as they're 76% ATS in database history vs conference play when their opp is coming off a poor performance (66 points or less) in a game they lost. Diving into Washington quickly, they're 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Away Dog games, 2-11 ATS coming off an ATSLoss and the line is higher than 10 in their last 13 situations, 35% ATS in the first month of conference play with a line higher than 10 on the road. Expect Stanford's Tyrell Terry and Daejon Davis to take control and win comfortably. 

Take: Stanford -11 -110


Arizona St / Oregon 9:30 CT
Considering the into trend where were fading large away dogs, this lines up to be a great home favorite spot for Oregon as well. They're an impressive 19-9 ATS when playing conference play as a large (-10 or larger) home favorite since Feb 2017. Not only that, Oregon wins by an average of 20.1 points when playing conference play with a line higher than -10 and you can find that system here.  We understand how dominate Oregon is, who is top 15% in both offence and defensive rebounding in the country... but if you are not sold on this wager consider Arizona St is 3-14-1 17% ATS when playing conference play with a line higher than 10 since 2013. They're also 30% ATS in database history when playing in conference play on the road with a line +8 or higher and total 142 or lower, which is good for 3-11 ATS L14. Oregon by 16

Take: Oregon -10.5 -110



ACC Conference System Plays Taking a deep dive into the ACC we've taken note on small (+5 or smaller) ACC Home Dog's performance which is a staggering 8-23 25% ATS since the Jan 01 2019. These teams are 1-5 SU this season. There are two that fall under this situation in Boston College and Notre Dame; so looks dive deeper...

L'Ville / ND 1:00 CT 
It's funny these two ACC games were focusing on have the same spread. Even though Louisville lost two games recently at Kentucky, and FSU...there simply much bigger and better than Notre Dame.  The line is low due to conference play, and due the the fact ND's point Gurads Gibbs and Hubb are some of the best in the ACC. But Louisville is a scary 19-1 Straight Up in first month of conference play facing a team coming off a loss in the last 20 situations and 83% SU in database history. Giving ND is 1-7 SU in their 8 Home games, you have to consider how Louisville is going to control this Notre Dame team who in my opinion is playing their best opponent of the season this afternoon. They're the best slow paced team in the country next to UVA and Butler. Louisville by two buckets. 

TAKE: Louisville -3.5 -110

GA Tech / BC 5:00 CT
With this being such a low spread, let's start by pointing out ACC home dogs coming off a dog win have lost 8 in a row. That's Boston College coming off a 7 point home dog win vs Virginia, which was impressive but BC is 3-29 Straight Up coming off a game where they scored 61 points or less in the last 32 situations, and 1-13 SU coming off a game where they scored 61 or less and playing as a Home Dog. Not only that, Ga Tech is top 20% in pace in the county compared to BC's slow paced offence.  Remember Ga Tech is coming off an impressive cover vs Duke and an even more impressive win vs a lowly UNC team, at chapel hill.  GA Tech players are really getting into the groove in conference play with those two impressive performances ontop of 4 players getting into double digit points in the last two games. They simply have better forwards who can guard the arc as well. Wrapping this one up, GA Tech is 9-1 in their last 10 games playing a team coming off a Dog Win and they're also 72% Straight Up  in database history when playing as a favorite vs a team coming off a 60pt or less performance    

TAKE: Ga Tech -3.5 -110



  1. 35+ Systems on Saturday Night College Basketball
    Bradley 80% ATS FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DLSU+and+o%3Aconference%3DSEC+and+HF+and+line%3C-6+and+season%3E%3D2013&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  2. Utah State 82.4% OU FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DLSU+and+o%3Aconference%3DSEC+and+HF+and+line%3C-6+and+season%3E%3D2013&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  3. Duke/Wake Forest 66.7% OU FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=conference%3DACC+and+conference%3Do%3Aconference+and+HF+and+line%3C%3D-15+and+total%3E145+and+season%3E%3D2012&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  4. Oklahoma/Iowa State 68.2% OU FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DIAST+and+HF+and+total%3E%3D150+and+season%3E%3D2014&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  5. Texas/Kansas State 75% OU FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=conference%3Do%3Aconference+and+HF+and+line%3E%3D-6+and+p%3Apoints%3C65+and+pp%3Apoints%3C65+and+op%3Apoints%3C65+and+opp%3Apoints%3C65+and+season%3E%3D2018&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  6. California 65.2% ATS FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DCAL+and+HD+and+season%3E%3D2017&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  7. Grand Canyon 62.5% ATS FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DGC+and+HF+and+line%3C%3D-6&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  8. Houston Baptist 85.7% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DHOUBA+and+HD&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  9. Montana State 70.8% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DMONST+and+HF+and+o%3Arest%3E%3D4+and+season%3E%3D2011&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  10. St. Mary’s 68.4% ATS FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DSTM+and+HF+and+line%3C%3D-10+and+total%3E140+and+rest%3C2&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  11. UC Irvine 70% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DUCRIV+and+HF+and+line%3E%3D-6+and+total%3C130+and+conference%3Do%3Aconference&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  12. UAB 66.7% OU FADE System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DUAB+and+HF+and+total%3C140+and+season%3E%3D2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  13. Chicago State 61.5% ATS FADE Systems: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DCHIST+and+AD+and+line%3E15+and+season%3E%3D2012&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  14. North Dakota State 63.6% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DNDAKOT+and+line%3E6+and+total%3E150&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21+++
  15. LSU vs. Mississippi State 66.7% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team=LSU+and+o:team=MISST
  16. Oral Roberts is 31% ATS Fade 3-15 ATS L18. System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DORROB+and+HF+and+line%3C%3D-7&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ 
  17. Tenn Tech 16-2 UNDER System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team+%3D+TNTCH+and+HD+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+OV+and+season%3E%3D2015&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  18. Texas Southern 81% Straight Up: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team+%3D+TXSOU+and+HF+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+SWAC+and+season%3E%3D2013&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  19. Missouri 29% Home Dog w/ conference System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DMISSO+and+HD+and+o%3Aconference%3DSEC&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  20. UTEP 71% Home Dog System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DUTEP+and+HD+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  21. Alabama St (Fav tonight) is 0-9 SU in this system: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DALAST+and+rest%3E%3D4+and+date%3E%3D20190219&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  22. Portland 33% ATS System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DPOR+and+AD+and+p%3AW+and+line%3E%3D8&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  23. Boise St Lifetime 27% Under: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team=SDST+and+o:team=BOIST
  24. Cal Po 13% ATS Fade System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DCALPO+and+HD+and+month%3D1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  25. Hampton 64% HF System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DHAMP+and+HF&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  26. Long Beach 31% Fade System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team=UCSB+and+o:team=LBST
  27. UC Irive SU 66% System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team+%3D+UCIRV+and+HF+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+BIGW+and+p%3AATSW+and+season%3E%3D2014&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  28. Oregon 60%+ HF ATS System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team+%3D+ORE+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+P12+and+F+and+line%3C%3D-10&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  29. Oregon 61% Home Under System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team+%3D+ORE+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+P12+and+F+and+line%3C%3D-9+and+total%3E%3D140&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ 
  30. Weber State vs. Sacramento State 62.5% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team=SACST+and+o:team=WEBST
  31. Seattle 25% ATS Fade System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DSEA+and+HF+and+total%3E%3D141&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21
  32. Pepperdine AF Under System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DPEP+and+AF+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21
  33. BYU 66% Over System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DBYU+and+rest%3C%3D1+and+line%3C%3D-14&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21
  34. LSU 70% OU System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DLSU+and+o%3Aconference%3DSEC+and+HF+and+line%3C-6+and+season%3E%3D2013&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  35. UTEP 21% ATS Fade System: https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team+%3D+UTEP+and+rest+%3C%3D+1+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+USA+and+date%3E%3D20180113&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21



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