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3 Plays; Tuesday Sept 15th 2020

Washington (Sanchez) @ Rays (Curtiss)
+150 @ -165 O/U 9.0 6:40CT 

It’s well understood the Rays are playing very hot baseball, which led to the digging to see how they further perform as Home Favorites.  We found the Rays are 7-1-1 on the UNDER playing as a Home Favorite with a high total (9.0 or higher) in their last 9 situations; as they’re 5-1 to the UNDER with a high total (9.0 or higher) with a righty on the mound since mid last season. A situation I track closely with all teams is when they come off Home Favorite Loss and starting a new series as a Home Favorite.  The Rays hold a 74% on the UNDER in this situation since 2015, good for four in a row. This line is exactly dead on though, as the Nationals are 2-7 SU in the last 9 Anibal Sanchez starts, allowing 6.0 runs on average in those nine starts. It gets worse for Sanchez, as he’s 6-20 SU 23% in the last five seasons pitching as a Away Dog with a total of 9.0 or higher. Though Sanchez does favor the UNDER tonight as he faces a team coming off a favorite loss and pitching on the road; where the under 7-1-1 in the last nine situations.

Top SDQL: Nationals are 22-7-2 76% on the UNDER as an Away Dog in the First Game of the Series and both pitchers are righties.
Play: Under 9.0

Boston (Houck) @ Miami (Alcantara)
+140 @ -155 O/U 9.0 6:40CT

There’s no hiding it: The Red Sox are 21-9 70% Straight Up in the last 2.5 seasons playing as an Away Dog vs non-divisional opponents (26-4 86% to the RL). I found it interesting though the Red Sox are the only team in the MLB to pick up a win this season in the First Game of a Series vs a non Divisional opp (0-5). Checking the same Situation on the Miami showed the Marlins are 7-17 SU at home in their last 24 non-divisional opp games. If you’re a true baseball gambler, you’d know this is Sandy Alcantara’s first TRUE FAVORITE start in 42 professional starts, which is insane.  Giving Alcantara is only 40% SU lifetime at home, make those Boston odds even much more valuable. 

TOP SDQL: The Marlins are 14-28 33% SU at Home coming off B2B 9+ hits in their previous (2) games. 2-11 L13 situations. Historically don’t do well coming off good games; great let down spot.

Pittsburgh (Musgrove) @ Cincinnati (Lorenzen)
+125 @ -135 O/U 9.0 6:40CT 

It’s crazy to say the Pirates are a blind 70% fade this season, holding a solid 10% ROI.  While the Reds are not even close to that category, they’re simply not holding up the expectations.  Though, they’re 5-2 SU in their last 7 games, as well as 5-2 in starter Michael Lorenzen’s last 7 starts. Let’s note the Reds are 11-3 on the OVER in their last 14 Home Divisional games, though 3-10 in their last 14 home favorite games with a high total (9.0 or higher). The Pirates are also favoring our OVER Situations; as the OVER is 9-2 when Joe Musgrove is pitching as a Dog vs a Starter coming off a win. (Musgrove 8-3 to the Over L11 Away Dog starts). Musgrove is also 64% lifetime to the OVER pitching Away with as a favorite or small dog (no bigger than +140).

TOP SDQL: The Reds are 0-7 the last seven times they were on 3 Game Winning streak.  Historically don’t get that fourth win; another let down spot.

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Starter B2B 4innings or less  

 Here we'll focus on a starter who worked less thanfour innings in each of his late two starts. It's important to notice we'll be playing ON this team, not against. This situation holds a beautiful 20.6% ROI in the last three seasons with the record line looking like this: (system link)

SU:35-34 (-0.43, 50.7%)  avg line: 147.5 / -162.0  on / against: +$1,425 / -$1,821  ROI: +20.6%
This is important to check when you're about to back a favorite. The focus team in this situation value is thrown off due to the Pitchers previous two rough starts. Most pitchers rebound is why were getting nice numbers on teams.  We'll be keeping track of this one here:  

Coming off a Road Favorite Loss 

We'll be FADING 6 teams this year when they're rested underdogs +130 or more, coming off a game where they had 8 hits or less. 

We'll track this right here:
(system link)

Play #1:

 opponent left fewer than ten men on base  

The Top 6 teams below hold great records playing as a favorite more than -130 after a game inwhich their opponent left fewer than 10 on base.  
Weather it's far fetched to some, these records go back only three years and if you go back farther the records only get better (system link)

We'll be tracking here the Twins, Yankees, and Indians home games when they fall under this situation.

The largest profitable home dog in 2019 was the Rangers who went 23-23 at an average of +142 on the money line, a profit of +9.13 units. The Tigers were 11-49 as a home dog, for a league worst -32u.

The largest profitable home favorite in 2019 was Dodgers who went 60-24 at an average of -208 on the money line which is not only was the most profitable, it was the highest winning percentage in the league as a home favorite picking up +15.8u. The least profitable home favorite in 2019 was the Red Sox who went 34-32 minus 25 units, Next worse: PITT -8u. 

The most profitable away dog in 2019 was the Giants who went 36-36 at an average of +148 on the moneyline, good for a profit of 15.7 units. Next profitable AD was the Nationals at 24-18 +12.9 units. The least profitable AD was the Rockies who went 20-48 -16.6 units.

Note the most Top 3 Most Profitable Away Dogs in the last three seasons
1) Braves, 2) Nationals, 3) Brewers

The largest profitable away favorite in 2019 was the Twins, who went an impressive 35-10 on the moneyline+19.2 units. With the least profitable away favorite was the Cubs at 23-22 -5 units.

Let's take a look at teams coming off a win in 2019:
...playing asa favorite, the most profitable team was the Braves who were 47-22 in this situation good for +15 units
...playing as a underdog, the most profitable team was the D-backs who were 24-18 in this situation good for +11 units.

-- Let's take a closer look though; teams coming off a win in 2019:

...playing in the First Game of the Series (FGS), the top 3 profitable teams were: Astros, Rays, Dodgers
...playing in the FGS, facing an starter with a ERA to date of 4.50 or greater: The Royals were undefeated on the over in this situation last season, as they're also a MLB best over the last 3 seasons at 20-8-2 71% on the OVER. 

Teams coming off B2B 9+ hit games and playing as a Favorite; over the last three seasons (since 2017) 
Only two divisions in the photo / last three years are +Plus money

- AL West 65% SU +4,531
- AL East 63% SU +2,061 

We wanted to note the Yankees are an outstanding 61-35 63% +23 units on the OVER in this situation as well (link)

Want to know how teams do coming off atleast 4 games where they haven't been able to score 5 or more runs?
These are the most profitable teams over the last three seasons: all profiting over +10 units
- Nationals 20-5 80%
- Cardinals 25-14 64%
- Blue Jays 30-22 57%

Most Overpriced 2019 Teams: 

Teams who held great records playing as a favorite, but -neg on the money
1) Red Sox 72-54 -19.9 units
2) Cardinals 58-41 -1.3 units
3) Angels 42-34 -5.5 units