It was fairly shocking personally to see Cueto such a large Home Dog given their playing the Padres.  Although San Diego's Chis Paddack may have better stuff than Cueto, I see value behind Cueto's fastball at home at odd north of +160 anyday.  He's only been an Home Dog 8 times in the last three seasons, which the OVER is 7-1 in those games (4-4 SU). It's also important to notice Cueto is 15-4 78% on the OVER when his team is coming off a home loss and it's not the first game of the series (link). Another quick one: Cueto is 61% SU and 71% on the OVER since joining the Giants pitching at home when his team is coming off 3 runs produced or less. The Giants are also 13-8 61% SU coming off a First Game of the Series Home Loss in their last 21 tries, good for +18.7% ROI (link). The Giants are also 63% coming off a 6+ hit home game vs the Padres and it's not the first game of the series since 2011 (link). Chris Paddack for San Diego is 3-9 L12 Away Games (1-5 L6) so he's struggled, and is pretty even when it comes to Situational systems. 66% on the Under when pitching in the 2nd Game of the Series or later is the next best I found on him.  Under and Giants moneyline +170.


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