Sunday College Hoops
California @ UCLA 8:00 PM EST
In this Pac 12 matchup, California travels to UCLA to take on the Bruins at home. UCLA is favored by 8.5 points and the total currently sits at 132. Cal is coming off a rough 30 points loss to USC and UCLA is off three straight losses to begin conference play.
Situationally, UCLA is the team to back here against the spread. The Bruins are 21-6-1 (77.8%) against the spread when playing as a home favorite between 6 and 12 points in conference play, since 2011. Cal, in a similar situation, when playing as an away dog in conference play coming off a loss of 20 or more points, is 8-7 (53.3%) against the spread, nothing to make us shy away. Interestingly, in the same situation, the Golden Bears are 7-1 (87.5%) to the under. Additionally, in all of Pac 12 conference play, the team playing as a favorite, coming off three straight losses, is 15-6-1 (71.4%) against the spread, since 2017.
Looking at efficiency numbers, the Bruins are clearly favored for a reason. UCLA ranks 121st in overall efficiency while California ranks 189th. Both of these squads rank in the bottom 100 in terms of pace of play. The Golden Bears average a measly 56 points on the road, shooting only 35.7% from the floor.
Both UCLA against the spread and the under are both solid plays here. In my eyes, the slower pace of play of both these teams wins out and the under caches in the 1H and full game.
Take: Under 132
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