WagerBro's Saturday Night CBB
Wake Forest @ Duke 8:00 PM EST
In Duke’s past 5 games, they were favored by double digits, and this matchup is no different with Wake Forest getting 19.5 points on the road. The Demon Deacons come off a 10 point loss to Florida State in which they did not cover. The Blue Devils are off an 11 point win over Georgia Tech, the missed covering by the hook.
Duke playing as a home favorite of 15 or more points is only 13-10 ATS, but 16-7 to the under, since 2018. In a similar situation, Wake Forest playing as an away dog of 10 or more points is 14-7 to the under, since 2015. From a conference perspective ACC matchups, with a home favorite of 15 or more points and a total above 145, are 20-10 to the under since 2012.
Now, since both of these teams rank in the top 100 in terms of pace of play, the under may be scary. However, when you consider that the average total in all three situations mentioned is above 148, the idea of taking the under in this game is much easier to swallow.
Because the line in this matchup is so large, and I foresee it playing out that way, taking the under on the total game does not frighten me. (no chance of BS free throws causing a bad beat)
Florida @ Missouri 8:30 PM EST
Florida enters this game off back to back wins to start conference play. Missouri began their conference schedule with back to back losses including a loss as a home favorite to Tennessee in their last contest. Florida is a 2.5 point road favorite and the total currently sits at 129.
Florida is 13-6 ATS as a favorite since 2015, including 6 of their last 8. Missouri is 9-22 straight up when getting 6 or fewer points as a home dog. As a conference, SEC teams as away favorites win straight up 27-16 (62.8%), including 12 of their last 18. Lastly, in all conference play, away favorites of 3 or fewer points coming off back to back wins facing a team coming off a loss as a home favorite are 11-5 since 2018.
Florida is in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency this year while Missouri is outside the top 50 overall. Taking the small road favorite against a laboring team to start conference play is an easy pick for me.
Pick: Florida ML -135